DeepSeek Effect: A Re-rating of Chinese Stocks?
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In an unexpected yet fitting move, Apple has chosen to collaborate with Alibaba for their AI support. This decision reflects a range of considerations within the tech industry, particularly in light of the recent innovations showcased by Chinese firms like DeepSeek. While DeepSeek has garnered significant attention, Alibaba’s ability to provide a stable and operationally robust AI solution cannot be overlooked. The fundamental reason for this partnership is that Alibaba’s AI capabilities align perfectly with Apple’s requirements.
In an interesting turn of events, the past few weeks have seen a sharp uptick in Alibaba’s evaluation metrics, with its market value having surged by 40% over just 20 days. This rise is emblematic of a broader market sentiment reflecting increased confidence in AI technologies and their deployment on a large scale.
DeepSeek represents a new generation of AI capabilities that has shattered existing paradigms within the industry. This isn’t just a singular success story; it stands as one of the foremost contenders among its peers in the rapidly evolving Chinese AI landscape. With systematic innovations leading to the development of advanced models, DeepSeek has managed to circumvent the challenges associated with locked high-performance graphics cards, a key barrier in AI model training. Their success introduces a new framework for understanding AI applications among domestic companies and helps restore confidence within a once-stagnant valuation climate in China’s tech sector.
Not to be outdone, the open-source alternative known as Qwen has also made remarkable strides, particularly with its Qwen2.5-Max model introduced earlier this year. This model’s performance has already positioned it among the world’s leading AI systems, resulting in a 6.7% increase in the stock market on the day of its announcement. The underlying confidence stems from Qwen’s stellar performance across various benchmarks, such as MMLU-Pro and LiveCodeBench, where it outperforms many established names, finally putting Alibaba on the global radar.
Furthermore, Qwen’s raw capabilities provide developers with the tools necessary for innovation. For example, Stanford and the University of Washington researchers utilized the Qwen2.5 as a foundational model for training an advanced AI reasoning model S1, showcasing the flexibility and power of this open-source framework. S1’s performance in mathematical and coding challenges aligns it closely with models developed by OpenAI and DeepSeek. However, it’s crucial to note that such outcomes were possible only due to the efficacy of the Qwen model.

The potential for Qwen to develop even further hints at the growing sophistication of AI technology in China, where models can perform increasingly complex tasks with more extensive parameters, similar to the difference in training a child compared to that of a doctoral candidate.
Qwen’s adaptability across a plethora of devices—from mobile phones to cloud systems—ensures broad appeal. Its parameter range, spanning from 0.5B to 72B, captures the interest of a diverse group of developers looking to leverage AI for varied applications. Recent advancements, such as Qwen2.5-VL, highlight its next-level capabilities, enabling visual understanding and interaction with various formats like videos and documents. Such features position Qwen as a future asset in sectors like finance and commerce, where automating data organization can lead to increased efficiency.
DeepSeek's meteoric rise is not an isolated event; it is part of a larger narrative within China's AI arena that includes a flurry of innovation and competition among local companies. This ecosystem thrives on collaborative spirit and healthy competition, where the collective efforts of developers push the boundaries of what’s possible.
To pivot towards DeepSeek’s disruptive impact, one must acknowledge that it has fundamentally altered the traditional AI business logic that larger companies have relied upon. By achieving near-GPT-o1 performance at a fraction of the cost, DeepSeek has compelled established companies like Alibaba, who traditionally prioritized research investment and extensive stakeholder engagement, to reassess their strategies. Over recent years, firms that aggressively pursued high-cost AI models now find themselves outpaced, with DeepSeek’s recent accomplishments effectively neutralizing their competitive advantage.
As reports suggest, several domestic players have begun to reconsider their stakes in the AI model market, rethinking investment strategies in light of DeepSeek’s rapid advancements. There are indications that this catalyst is forcing CEOs and financial officers in the sector to pause and evaluate if continuing heavy investments in traditional AI models is justifiable, especially when the landscape has been irrevocably shifted by lower-cost, robust alternatives.
The ramifications extend globally, as DeepSeek’s growth has triggered a re-evaluation of American tech stocks tied to AI. A week post the release of DeepSeek's flagship model R1, significant declines were recorded in stocks of prominent companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, as markets adjusted to the new competitive landscape in AI. For firms that heavily invested in traditional AI infrastructure, including massive data centers, the relationship between investment and expected return is starting to appear increasingly tenuous.
In this context, banks and investment firms, such as Morgan Stanley, have begun to scrutinize the investment dynamics in both American and Chinese tech stocks. They highlight the dual focus on assessing both the lofty prices of US tech stocks and the potential growth that remains untapped within the Chinese market, suggesting an emerging trend of reallocation towards Chinese firms with lower valuation metrics but high potential returns.
DeepSeek’s rise might not just represent a breakthrough in AI technology but symbolically contains the potential to transform the Chinese economy’s narrative. Scholars and financial analysts are now emphasizing the “Sputnik Moment” as China emerges on the global AI stage that parallels the US’s early space race achievement, redefining the international competitive wisdom of what factors constitute technological leadership.
Furthermore, the focus of investment has shifted away from traditional metrics such as semiconductor innovation; now there’s a recognition that software advancements can themselves serve as significant competitive advantages. DeepSeek’s achievements paint a picture of resilience and capability among private tech firms in China, suggesting a new era for investment and growth that transcends prior assumptions of innovation limitations caused by hardware availability.
The significance of DeepSeek’s accomplishments extends into future applications of AI. As new models emerge that are not only more affordable but are steadily improving in functionality, a wave of enhanced applications could proliferate throughout industries. The pioneering work of teams like Li Fei Fei’s with their S1 model stands as a testament to a future saturated with high-caliber AI, tailored for the demands of both large enterprises and smaller tech startups alike.
In conclusion, the reawakening of interest in Chinese technology stocks illustrates a broader reassessment of China’s technological prowess. With companies like Alibaba’s valuation rebounding and gaining support from external investors, the narrative surrounding Chinese tech stocks evolves toward recognizing potential rather than just risk. This newfound optimism is rapidly validating the belief that the valuation discount observed in these companies may soon be a thing of the past, paving the way for an exciting future for the global technology landscape.
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